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Theory often predicts that host populations should evolve greater resistance when parasites become abundant. Furthermore, that evolutionary response could ameliorate declines in host populations during epidemics. Here, we argue for an update: when all host genotypes become sufficiently infected, higher parasite abundance can select for lower resistance because its cost exceeds its benefit. We illustrate such a “resistance is futile” outcome with mathematical and empirical approaches. First, we analyzed an eco-evolutionary model of parasites, hosts, and hosts’ resources. We determined eco-evolutionary outcomes for prevalence, host density, and resistance (mathematically, “transmission rate”) along ecological and trait gradients that alter parasite abundance. With high enough parasite abundance, hosts evolve lower resistance, amplifying infection prevalence and decreasing host density. In support of these results, a higher supply of nutrients drove larger epidemics of survival-reducing fungal parasites in a mesocosm experiment. In two-genotype treatments, zooplankton hosts evolved less resistance under high-nutrient conditions than under low-nutrient conditions. Less resistance, in turn, was associated with higher infection prevalence and lower host density. Finally, in an analysis of naturally occurring epidemics, we found a broad, bimodal distribution of epidemic sizes consistent with the resistance is futile prediction of the eco-evolutionary model. Together, the model and experiment, supplemented by the field pattern, support predictions that drivers of high parasite abundance can lead to the evolution of lower resistance. Hence, under certain conditions, the most fit strategy for individual hosts exacerbates prevalence and depresses host populations. 

Abstract The healthy herds hypothesis proposes that predators can reduce parasite prevalence and thereby increase the density of their prey. However, evidence for such predator‐driven reductions in the prevalence of prey remains mixed. Furthermore, even less evidence supports increases in prey density during epidemics. Here, we used a planktonic predator–prey–parasite system to experimentally test the healthy herds hypothesis. We manipulated density of a predator (the phantom midge, Chaoborus punctipennis ) and parasitism (the virulent fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata ) in experimental assemblages. Because we know natural populations of the prey ( Daphnia dentifera ) vary in susceptibility to both predator and parasite, we stocked experimental populations with nine genotypes spanning a broad range of susceptibility to both enemies. Predation significantly reduced infection prevalence, eliminating infection at the highest predation level. However, lower parasitism did not increase densities of prey; instead, prey density decreased substantially at the highest predation levels (a major density cost of healthy herds predation). This density result was predicted by a model parameterized for this system. The model specifies three conditions for predation to increase prey density during epidemics: (i) predators selectively feed on infected prey, (ii) consumed infected prey release fewer infectious propagules than unconsumed prey, and (iii) sufficiently low infection prevalence. While the system satisfied the first two conditions, prevalence remained too high to see an increase in prey density with predation. Low prey densities caused by high predation drove increases in algal resources of the prey, fueling greater reproduction, indicating that consumer–resource interactions can complicate predator–prey–parasite dynamics. Overall, in our experiment, predation reduced the prevalence of a virulent parasite but, at the highest levels, also reduced prey density. Hence, while healthy herds predation is possible under some conditions, our empirical results make it clear that the manipulation of predators to reduce parasite prevalence may harm prey density. 

Infectious disease can threaten host populations. Hosts can rapidly evolve resistance during epidemics, with this evolution often modulated by fitness trade-offs (e.g., between resistance and fecundity). However, many organisms switch between asexual and sexual reproduction, and this shift in reproductive strategy can also alter how resistance in host populations persists through time. Recombination can shuffle alleles selected for during an asexual phase, uncoupling the combinations of alleles that facilitated resistance to parasites and altering the distribution of resistance phenotypes in populations. Furthermore, in host species that produce diapausing propagules (e.g., seeds, spores, or resting eggs) after sex, accumulation of propagules into and gene flow out of a germ bank introduce allele combinations from past populations. Thus, recombination and gene flow might shift populations away from the trait distribution reached after selection by parasites. To understand how recombination and gene flow alter host population resistance, we tracked the genotypic diversity and resistance distributions of two wild populations of cyclical parthenogens. In one population, resistance and genetic diversity increased after recombination whereas, in the other, recombination did not shift already high resistance and genetic diversity. In both lakes, resistance remained high after temporal gene flow. This observation surprised us: due to costs to resistance imposed by a fecundity-resistance trade-off, we expected that high population resistance would be a transient state that would be eroded through time by recombination and gene flow. Instead, low resistance was the transient state, while recombination and gene flow re-established or maintained high resistance to this virulent parasite. We propose this outcome may have been driven by the joint influence of fitness trade-offs, genetic slippage after recombination, and temporal gene flow via the egg bank. 

Genetic variation in parasites has important consequences for host-parasite interactions. Prior studies of the ecologically important parasite Metschnikowia bicuspidata have suggested low genetic variation in the species. Here, we collected M. bicuspidata from two host species (Daphnia dentifera and Ceriodaphnia dubia) and two regions (Michigan and Indiana, USA). Within a lake, outbreaks tended to occur in one host species but not the other. Using microsatellite markers, we identified six parasite genotypes grouped within three distinct clades, one of which was rare. Of the two main clades, one was generally associated with D. dentifera, with lakes in both regions containing a single genotype. The other M. bicuspidata clade was mainly associated with C. dubia, with a different genotype dominating in each region. Despite these associations, both D. dentifera- and C. dubia-associated genotypes were found infecting both hosts in lakes. However, in lab experiments, the D. dentifera-associated genotype infected both D. dentifera and C. dubia, but the C. dubia-associated genotype, which had spores that were approximately 30% smaller, did not infect D. dentifera. We hypothesize that variation in spore size might help explain patterns of cross-species transmission. Future studies exploring the causes and consequences of variation in spore size may help explain patterns of infection and the maintenance of genotypic diversity in this ecologically important system.